Forex Daily Forecast, Analysis and Prediction

The US stock markets opened the trading week on mixed territory as the industry index, Dow Jones, closed on the red zone and the other two main indices closed on the green territory.

The European Union had elections over the weekend in Greece, France, and Germany. While some of the election results were expected, some of the results in Greece had people concerned around the investing world as many of the new parliament members elected to go to Athens are stringently anti-austerity.

The Aussie gapped lower at the open for Monday as the world sold off risk assets in reaction to the election results in places like Greece, Germany, and France. The austerity packages are now in some kind of doubt, so this of course had the markets a bit jittery.

The Russian Ruble is one of my favorite petro-based currencies to trade. The USD/RUB pair is highly sensitive to both oil and risk attitude. The oil markets will of course weigh heavily on this pair as Russia is such a large producer of it, and the “emerging markets” aspect allows for it to be a “risk on, risk off” pair as well.

The GBP/USD has completed a picture perfect 38.2% retracement with last weeks pullback off the highest level seen in almost 2 years. After hitting 1.63007 on April 30th, the pair fell for the next week to 1.6113, which is the Monthly Pivot as well as the 38.2% retracement level for the move up that started on April 16th of this year.

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The bearish atmosphere took over Wall Street last week on the background of disappointing Non-farm payroll change.

EUR/USD had a rough end of the week on Friday. The US Non-Farm Payroll report came out at positive 115,000 jobs added in April and this pair originally rose as a result. After all, currencies are measures in a relative sense, and if the US is struggling then the market thought that the Europeans would be “not as bad”.

AUD/USD has been falling for some time now, and the pair had a particularly negative session on Friday. The pair looks as if the momentum is accelerating to the downside, and the 1.02 level giving way has certainly caught my attention.

GBP/USD fell on Friday as the Non-Farm Payroll numbers for the month of April out of the United States disappointed. The markets were expecting as much as 165,000 jobs added, but only got an addition of 115,000.

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EUR/USD had another back and forth session on Thursday in order to finish the day relatively unchanged. There was an attempt to push the pair lower, but the end of the day saw many of the sellers covering, more than likely to get out of the market before the Non-Farm Payroll report that is coming out later today.

USD/JPY has been the one pair I have paid the most attention to over the last several weeks. The pair is simply at a crossroads, and I believe that this pair is about to make a serious decision on the future direction it takes.

The USD/CAD pair had a rough session on Thursday as the market first fell, and then popped at the end of the day. The pair is one of the most volatile ones when it comes to Non-Farm Payroll Fridays, and as a result it can be one of the high flyers for the day.