Forex Daily Forecast, Analysis and Prediction

The Euro tried to rally a little bit during the trading session here on Friday, but it looks like the 1.16 level is in fact going to continue to offer a bit of resistance. At this point in time, if it does, the Euro probably drops down to the 1.15 level. And then after that, the 1.14 level, which of course has an area that I think a lot of people will be watching as it's been important previously, and it was where the market tested an uptrend line. Furthermore, the 1.14 level is also an area that the 200 day EMA is racing towards. With this being said, any rally at this point in time, I look at with suspicion until we can break above the 50 day EMA, and that of course being broken to the upside then could reassert the potential of the upside. But I think at this point, it really looks like the Euro is starting to roll over. And it's worth noting that the US dollar is strengthening against most currencies.

The British Pound has gone back and forth during trading here on Friday as we are testing the 200-day EMA. This is a market that I think you will have to continue to look at through the prism of negative, but bouncing from the 200-day EMA is not exactly a huge surprise, I think we could see a little bit of technical uh momentum come back into the market. I don't know if it sticks, but I do think you've got a situation where traders are going to at least acknowledge this indicator. A rally at this point in time probably opens up a move to the 1.34 level at best, and then we probably roll over there.

The US dollar broke down significantly against the Japanese yen during trading on Friday, as the ¥153 level has offered a significant amount of resistance, and perhaps gravity came back into the picture. That being said, we also have a little bit of an exacerbation of trade tensions between the United States and the Chinese, and therefore a little bit of a “risk off move” made sense. In other words, people started running to the safety of the Japanese yen, but I also would argue that the market was overdone to begin with, and we were heading into the weekend.

It appears that the spat between the United States and China is far from over after Chinese leaders have decided to put massive restrictions on exports are rare earth minerals out of that country, and the United States has decided that they will be retaliating one way or the other. Because of this, the nonsense about the trade war has taken front and center stage again, and it’s likely that there are concerns about how the Chinese may punish Tesla, but at the end of the day we are still in the consolidation area and as we head into the weekend, it’s very difficult to grasp on what may or may not happen here. After all, this is a market that panics first and thanks later.

Germany plunged during trading on Friday, as we have seen the fears of an increasing trade war between the United States and China not, lot of risk appetite out of the markets. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of concerns about whether or not the situation gets worse between the United States and the Chinese, which could have a major influence on the Germans as well as they have to deal with a lot of volatility due to the fact that the Germans are such major exporters to the rest of the world.

Ethereum felt rather significantly during the trading session on Friday, as we have seen a decidedly “risk off” type of environment. In fact, Ethereum is down almost 6.5% for the session, as we continue to see Ethereum move back and forth with the overall risk appetite of traders around the world, and of course Ethereum continues to be very far out on the risk appetite spectrum, and that of course means that Ethereum will fall significantly anytime that the rest of the market breaks out.

Bitcoin initially attempted to rally during the session on Friday but gave back gains rather quickly in order to show signs of negativity. We have plunged below the $120,000 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and of course where we had bounce from during the previous session. Now that we have broken down below that candlestick, it does show a lot of negativity, and you have to look at it through the prism of a market that is panicking due to the idea of the United States and China increasing sense. After all, that puts quite a bit of pressure on risk appetite in general, and I think we will continue to see that be the case.

The USD/MXN is near the 18.45775 mark as of this writing, but traders need to take a look at the wide spreads in the currency pair before venturing forth with a speculative position today.

The USD/ZAR is around 17.27700 with a wide spread being seen at this moment, this after the currency pair jumped on Friday to a high of nearly 17.49700 momentarily on heightened rhetoric from the U.S White House.

The GBP/USD exchange rate has pulled back and reached its lowest level since August 1 as traders braced for a renewed trade war between the United States and China. It dropped to a multi-month low of 1.3263, down from the September high of 1.3730.

The EUR/USD exchange rate remained under pressure on Friday as traders reacted to the ongoing US government shutdown and the emerging trade war between the United States and China. It was trading at 1.1622, a few points above last week's low of 1.1540.

The AUD/USD exchange rate plunged to its lowest level since August 27, down by 3% from its highest point in September as risks emerged. It was trading at 0.6472 and is at risk of more downside as the US dollar strengthens.

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The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.