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Nasdaq Forecast: Defends 50-Day EMA Floor as Bond Market Jitters Cloud AI Rally

By Christopher Lewis
Senior Technical Analyst

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for tra...

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The top of the index isn't really doing the work, the biggest companies; it's the underlying part.

NASDAQ 100 (NAS100)

The Nasdaq 100 has been a bit of a laggard during the trading session, although it is positive, at least so far on Friday, as we go towards the close. There are a handful of stocks dragging the index a bit. The biggest one, of course, would be Nvidia, and, of course, the AI names in general continue to see a little bit of trouble from the bond sell-off. The idea of raising capital getting more expensive for a lot of these companies is a bit of a problem. That being said, anything related to crypto is screaming higher, with Coinbase up 7%, MicroStrategy up 7.6% in pre-market trading alone. Robinhood was up 13% at 1 point. The Bitcoin market is heading for a weekly gain of 23%, and, of course, we do have some other moves in the markets: Ross Stores up 8.1% on a Q2 beat, and MKS Instruments higher after a strong second quarter.

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The top of the index isn't really doing the work; the biggest companies. It's the underlying part. That is a different type of behavior than we typically will see. So, with all of that, the U.S. stock market seems to be positive in general.

Nasdaq Forecast 24/08: Defends 50-Day EMA Floor (Video)

Bond Market Pressure and Upcoming Catalysts

We did bounce from the 50-day EMA, and the 30-year yield hit a 19-year high this week. And this suggests that deficit concerns are now a problem again, and with inflation sticking as well, there are a lot of concerns in the bond market; very nervous bond traders at the moment. Ultimately, the Treasury intervention on Wednesday, suggesting that they were going to double their purchases of long bonds, caused a bit of fear, but we are starting to fade that a little bit. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

Next week, we get a couple of things going on, nothing extraordinarily eventful except I would point out Jackson Hole meeting, but we also have, after the close on Wednesday, we have Nvidia earnings. That'll be 1 to watch that will have an outsized effect on this market. But again, Nvidia was pretty sluggish during the session, so kind of a lackluster session, but really not too much to read other than we are stabilizing.

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Senior Technical Analyst
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

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