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S&P 500 Forecast: Breaks Below 200-Day EMA

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
  • During the trading session on Friday, we have seen the S&P 500 absolutely unravel.
  • We are now well below the 200 Day EMA, and it’s likely that we are probably going to continue to see an even deeper correction.
  • With that being the case, thinking you will have the opportunity to bunny the S&P 500 “on the cheap” down the road, but right now you are probably better off just simply sitting on the sidelines and letting it fall.

S&P 500 Today 10/03: Breaks Below 200-Day EMA (Chart)

While you could short the market, the reality is that sometimes things will bounce at the drop of a hat, especially considering that there are a lot of people out there willing to manipulate the S&P 500 higher.

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Technical Analysis

Ultimately, breaking down below the 200 Day EMA is a very negative turn of events, and it suggests that we are going to continue to see more selling pressure. With that being the case, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that is going to continue to be very noisy, but I think you also have to keep in mind that the market is probably one that continues to favor the downside. After all, it looks like the United States might be heading into a recession, so there’s no reason to think that the market would suddenly bounce.

That being said, the S&P 500 in the NASDAQ 100 will turn around sooner than most people anticipate, because they typically tend to look in the future, so they start to look for a rate of change that is favorable for the market. About the time you start to hear signs of the apocalypse in the major media channels, you will almost certainly see the stock market turn around and start to rally again.

The jobs number was lighter than anticipated, while the unemployment rate of 4.1% was bigger than the expected 4%, so the move does make a certain amount of sense, but it took it’s time happening during the day which is somewhat interesting as well. Bond markets continue to show that we have quite a few issues out there.

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Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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