Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:
- The overall Gold Trend: Leaning downwards.
- Today's Gold Support Levels: $3270 – $3220 – $3180 per ounce.
- Today's Gold Resistance Levels: $3335 – $3360 – $3385 per ounce.
Today's Gold Trading Signals:
- Sell gold from the resistance level of $3360 with a target of $3270 and a stop loss of $3380.
- Buy gold from the support level of $3270 with a target of $3400 and a stop loss of $3230.
Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:
During today's trading session, the gold price index attempted to rebound from its lowest levels in a month, after falling to the $3268 per ounce support level. This decline followed key US economic releases and the Federal Reserve's announcement, both of which provided further positive momentum to the US dollar. Today, spot gold prices rose to $3305 per ounce, where they are currently stabilizing at the time of writing.
Why Did Gold Prices Rise Today?
According to performance across gold trading platforms, the yellow metal's prices rose as financial markets assessed recent trade actions and Federal Reserve policy expectations. President Trump announced new tariff measures, including the elimination of low-value import exemptions and a review of tariffs on copper and Brazilian goods. He also confirmed the imposition of 15% tariffs on imports from South Korea and 25% on Indian goods, while noting that talks with India are ongoing.
Concurrently, the movement of technical indicators on the daily chart confirms the bearish shift in the gold price index. The 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) has fallen to a reading of 42, breaking below the midline, which confirms current bear dominance. At the same time, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines are heading downwards. As previously mentioned, gold prices will continue to try and hold around the $3300 per ounce level, awaiting new stimulus to resume their path toward record levels.
Trading Advice:
Traders are advised to monitor the continued decline of gold prices to seize new buying opportunities from around the $3270 support and lower, trading without risk, regardless of the strength of entry levels.
On the US monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve kept US interest rates unchanged, as expected. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirmed that it's too early to consider cuts and provided little guidance on timing. In response, financial markets have priced in 35 basis points of cuts by year-end. Investors also absorbed stronger-than-expected US data, with both GDP growth and private sector employment surpassing forecasts. Focus now shifts to the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation and jobless claims reports, both due today, Thursday, at 3:30 PM EEST, followed by the July jobs report on Friday at the same time.
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Reasons for the Decline in Gold Prices:
According to gold trading experts, gold prices have recently faced downward pressure. The easing of trade tensions has reduced the metal's appeal as a safe haven. Recently, the agreement between the United States and the European Union, which imposed a 15% tariff on most European goods, helped avert a broader trade conflict. With additional talks continuing with Canada, South Korea, and other countries, investor optimism is growing that further escalation can be avoided. Meanwhile, the United States and China are continuing their discussions to extend a tariff truce set to expire in two weeks, and President Trump is expected to make the final decision on any extension.
Attention is also turning to a series of key US economic reports. So far this week, job openings came in slightly below expectations, while consumer confidence ticked higher. Regarding the US labor market, it remains relatively strong, with the US private sector adding significantly more jobs than expected last month, according to ADP, a private sector payroll data analysis firm. ADP reported the creation of 104,000 jobs in July, substantially exceeding expectations. Consensus forecasts had projected a job increase of 77,000. At the same time, US employment data for June was revised upwards, showing a loss of 23,000 jobs—an improvement from the initial estimate of a 33,000 job decrease.
At the same time, the report indicated that wage growth remained relatively stable in July. Also, wages for workers who remained employed rose by 4.4%. Meanwhile, wages for workers who changed jobs rose by 7% in July.
In this regard, analysts have warned investors that gold prices might struggle amid good employment data, as gold remains a fundamental element in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. For its part, the US central bank confirmed that it is in no hurry to raise interest rates, as the labor market remains relatively stable and inflation risks remain high.
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