EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Neutral with a bearish bias.
- Today's Euro-Dollar Support Points: 1.1500 – 1.1440 – 1.1360.
- EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1600 – 1.1680 – 1.1770.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the from support level of 1.1480, target 1.1700, and stop loss 1.1400.
- Sell EUR/USD From the resistance level of 1.1700, target 1.1500, and stop loss 1.1780.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
Amid a cautious rebound, the euro price appears to be better supported this week. The EUR/USD exchange rate may surpass the 1.16 level again this week as momentum shifts from the dollar to the euro. According to performance on trusted trading companies' platforms, the 1.52% rally in EUR/USD last Friday was remarkably strong and may be enough to shift the underlying technical structure from a bearish to a bullish trend.
Technically, there is no doubt that more work needs to be done; for example, a close above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is needed to confirm the return of the near-term uptrend. The chart shows that the technical resistance line at 1.16 has returned to the forefront at the start of this week's trading, which may impede any upward trend in the coming hours and the early stages of the week.
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However, despite some minor near-term obstacles, we believe that the fundamental factors and the strength of last Friday's move will be sufficient to achieve further gains in the near term, with a potential to surpass the 1.16 level in the coming days. According to forex currency trading experts, the reason for the EUR/USD rally was the decline in the stock market that followed Friday's US jobs report, which showed the addition of only 73,000 non-farm jobs in July. This was a disappointing figure compared to the average analyst forecast of 104,000 jobs.
The US employment report sends a sobering message that the American economy may be feeling the impact of six months of frantic policy adjustments under its new president, which have destabilized it. The most important development, of course, is the imposition of tariffs on imports at levels not seen since the 1930s.
The tariffs will raise inflation and force domestic companies to re-adjust. But, from a market perspective, the most important development is that this uncomfortably high inflation limits the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates. While the Fed is certainly likely to cut interest rates in September following this jobs report, it will remain constrained by inflation in the future.
Since 2008, investors have realized they could count on the Federal Reserve to intervene and support them at the first sign of danger. But we are now in a world with uncomfortably high inflation, which limits the Fed's ability to help. It is no surprise, then, that financial markets have retreated, and the US dollar has also fallen. This data means that the end of American market exceptionalism is still a topic worth studying, and the euro is the biggest beneficiary of any rebalancing in global portfolios as international investors seek to diversify their investments.
Will the Euro Price Rise in the Future?
According to currency experts' forecasts, the euro remains the optimal choice for global investors moving away from the US dollar. Financial measures in Germany and increased European defense spending are expected to strengthen the euro. Therefore, we maintain our attractive credit rating for the euro. Trading the euro today, Tuesday, August 5, will react to the release of the Services Purchasing Managers' Index for the Eurozone economies; the aggregate block announcement will be at 11:00 AM Cairo time. Then, the Eurozone Producer Price Index will be released at 12:00 PM Cairo time. On the American side, the country's trade balance figures will be released at 3:30 PM Cairo time, followed by the ISM Services PMI at 5:00 PM Cairo time.
Trading Tips:
Traders are advised to take advantage of the recent decline in EUR/USD prices to build a new buying base for the currency pair, while trading without risk, regardless of the strength of available trading opportunities.
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